Good Morning!

A few weeks ago, we wrote that Gold and Gold Stocks were due for a pause. Naturally, that includes Silver.

If this fledgling correction persists, it would be the first one after Gold's breakout move to new all-time highs. 

History shows that some of the absolute best moves in Gold and Silver occurred after the market’s first correction after breaking to new all-time highs.

The First Correction After Breakout to New ATH

Gold has broken to a new all-time high and sustained it thrice. After each breakout, Gold tested its 200-day moving average (or came within 2% of it).

Here, we circle the corrections and note Gold’s advance before the correction, followed by the decline in percentage terms. (Click the chart to enlarge). 

At the bottom of the chart, we circle the corresponding corrections in Silver. 

Spectacular Performance After the Corrective Low

After Gold tested the 200-day moving average, the gains in both Gold and Silver were spectacular.

The minimum of the three gains for Gold was 80% in 18 months, and for Silver, it was 228% in 14 months.

Let's say Gold bottoms at $2700 in 3 months. If it follows the weakest of the 3 gains, it would reach nearly $4900/oz in March 2027. 

That type of performance can repeat itself, but only if there is a fundamental shift.

Fundamental Shift & Gold vs. Stock Market

Interestingly, the timing for a fundamental shift lines up perfectly with the two most important charts. 

Gold against the 60/40 Portfolio is working on a breakout from a decade-long base, while Gold against the stock market is close to breaking out of a 4-year-long base.

Breakouts in these charts would signal that capital is moving away from stocks and conventional assets in favor of Gold.

New Sponsor Companies

Calibre Mining (CXB.to, CXBMF) is a well run junior producer that is about to reach mid-tier producer status as its Valentine Mine in Canada begins producing over the months ahead.

The company produced 242K oz Au in 2024 and should come close to producing 500K oz Au in 2026, with potential to reach 550K oz Au in 2027.

GoGold Resources (GGD.to, GLGDF) is currently a small Silver producer with a pipeline of two development projects. Its CEO Brad Langille owns a large position in the company and has a very strong track record.

The company is attractively priced and in position to produce 9M oz Silver-equivalent/year in a few years, with another development project that could take it to 16-17M oz Silver-equivalent. 

For more analysis of these company and many more companies, consider TheDailyGold Premium.

The Fundamental & Technical Setup is Aligned

The setup is there for Gold and Silver to achieve spectacular gains if two things occur.

First, Gold needs to correct for a few months and successfully test and hold its 200-day moving average.

Second, and more importantly, an economic downturn must lead to a resumption of interest rate cuts, which would shift some capital away from conventional assets to Gold. 

That would be expressed through breakouts in Gold against the S&P 500 and Gold against the 60/40 Portfolio. The setup of those ratios signals they are ripe for a breakout. 

In TheDailyGold Premium....

TDG #924 was a 22-page update focusing on sector charts and subscriber Q & A. We like to look at important sector charts when the month closes.

This is an important juncture as if the sector corrects or consolidates for a few months and the economy deteriorates, Gold & Silver would be in a position for a tremendous move higher well into 2026.  

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Thank you for reading.

I wish you all the best in 2025 and beyond.