Good Morning!

This week and this month are shaping up to be a major inflection point in the bull market in the new bull market in precious metals. 

Here's Why.....

Introduction

We have written about the importance of Gold outperforming the stock market for nearly a decade. In addition, we expanded this concept by including Bonds to construct a 60/40 Portfolio.

In recent years, the bull market in precious metals has not felt like one due to the stock market's strength, which has limited capital flows in precious metals.  

However, that is beginning to change as capital has already started to move out of the Mag7, tech, and conventional stocks in favor of Gold.

Gold against the stock market has broken out and reached a 4-year high, while Gold against the 60/40 conventional investment portfolio is breaking out of a 10-year-long base.

Stock Market & Stock Market vs. Gold

We begin from the perspective of the stock market. 

We plot the S&P 500 below, along with the S&P 500 divided by Gold (middle) and the S&P 500 divided by the Barron's Gold Mining Index (bottom). 

The red lines mark the points at which the S&P 500 fell below its 40-month moving average. The blue arrows mark the preceding secular peak. 

The stock market is breaking down against Gold in a similar fashion to the early 1970s and in a similar fashion to gold stocks in the mid-1960s. We have written about how the gold stocks in the mid-1960s are the best comparison for Gold today. 

Breakdown in Stock Market vs. Gold confirms Secular Bull Market in Precious Metals

The next chart plots the S&P 500 against Gold (top) along with Gold, Silver, and Barron's Gold Mining Index.

The vertical blue line marks the point where the S&P 500 to Gold ratio lost its 40-month moving average. 

As you can see, this is an incredibly bullish development for the entire precious metals sector as it confirms a new secular bull market. 

The blue arrow marks the point when the gold stocks to S&P 500 ratio lost its 40-month moving average and broke down convincingly. Again, this is a better comparison for Gold today than in the early 1970s.  

Sponsor Companies

Calibre Mining (CXB.to, CXBMF) has now been acquired by or merged with Equinox Gold (EQX.to, EQX).

The two companies have a combined market cap of ~US $4.75 Billion, but have $1 Billion in debt.

Each company is building its most important and lowest cost mine right now. Both are in Canada, where the Gold price is extremely strong. 

The combined entity could generate EBITDA of $2.50 Billion at $2900 Gold in 2026. The combo could grow its production +60% from 2024 to 2026. 

In short, if these two mines have no major issues or significant delays and Gold continues to trend higher, the new Equinox should be a sector leader. But given the debt load, any hiccups that require significant future capital investment will hurt the stock. 

GoGold Resources (GGD.to, GLGDF) is currently a small Silver producer with a pipeline of two development projects. Its CEO Brad Langille owns a large position in the company and has a very strong track record.

The company is attractively priced and in position to produce 9M oz Silver-equivalent/year in a few years, with another development project that could take it to 16-17M oz Silver-equivalent.

The stock is acting very well. On December 22, 2024 we called a buy on the stock at C$1.10. We noted it was extremely oversold. The stock is up 60% since then. 

For more analysis of these companies and many more companies, subscribe to TheDailyGold Premium.

From Gold's Perspective

Finally, let’s view things from the perspective of Gold.

We plot Gold, Gold against the 60/40 Portfolio (middle), and Gold against the S&P 500 (bottom). 

The charts show monthly data. 

In TheDailyGold Premium....

TDG #925 was published Sunday evening and followed a flash update, written after Wednesday March 5.

We noted the correction in the miners could be over as the stocks were acting unusually strong. They were outperforming the metals and the GDX advance/decline line was showing a strong positive divergence, which continued into the weekend. 

TDG #925 included an updated report on one of our Top 10 Companies that, in terms of upside potential, is near the top of the list.

The CEO & insiders own a significant position. It is a production growth story but the company has decided to sink more capital into exploration. I think they will find success. 

In TDG #925 we also published a table on silver stocks we don't own. We listed the company, symbols, cash position, and then some notes on their status. We covered 6 additional silver companies in the table but will be adding to the table.  

What are people saying about TheDailyGold Premium right now?

"Jordans The Daily Gold is the best newsletter in the business, and Ive been in this sector since Oct 2002" -JettPeters3470 (YouTube)

"I believe you do a better job at what you do than any other letter that I know of. Keep up the good work!"- TDG Subscriber

"I have subscribed to a lot of precious metal resource newsletters (redacted / redacted / redacted / redacted / redacted Etc(at least two more)) but yours is the best.  I would love to write a testimonial about my experience".- TDG Subscriber

"I’ve followed you for years and I can unreservedly say that you’re the best analyst in precious metals there is" - evacox-FM7ze (YouTube)

"Jordan I want to thank you for everything you contribute: your timely YouTube's, your detailed and well organized newsletters (summarized in various places so I can just scan  if/when I don't have time to read everything Sunday/Monday, your EXCELLENT and amazingly accurate analyses of the charts, and your generosity in sharing HONEST guidance and wisdom. 

I have purchased many newsletters over the past 15 years and yours is hands down the BEST, and for the most reasonable price!! Newsletter writers often either don't understand markets, market timing or charts and/or write way too much such that important conclusions or guidance is basically buried in details that regular people like me (who aren't geologists) can't decipher.... resulting in trying to find the gems of important information buried in mountains of verbiage".- TDG Subscriber

Thank you for reading.

I wish you all the best in 2025 and beyond.