Good Morning!

Gold and Silver have sold off in the past week.

This could continue as Gold needs more time to digest its previous huge move and miners' long-term breadth readings are too hot for another impulsive move to begin. 

Stepping back, today I argue why the secular bull in precious metals and hard assets will run well into the 2030s....

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1) Hard Assets Make Their Major Moves AFTER The End of Secular Bull Markets in Stocks

The stock market remains in a secular bull. 

After the S&P 500's peak in 1929, gold stocks peaked 8 years later. 

After the secular peaks in the S&P 500 in late 1968 and early 2000, Gold, Silver and hard assets peaked 11 years later. 

Bonds just fell into a secular bear a few years ago. The last secular bear in Bonds lasted roughly 17 years.

2) Within Secular Trends, Capital Herds in 1 or 2 of the Major Asset Classes

Stocks and Bonds trended together in the 1980s and 1990s and 2010s, while Gold and Bonds trended together in the 1930s and 2000s. 

Gold and hard assets were all alone in the 1970s. (This could repeat in the 2030s). 

The current secular bear in Bonds will lead to the end of the secular bull in Stocks as was the case in the mid to late 1960s. 

That will open up even more capital for Gold, Silver and hard assets.

3) Secular Trend Overlap

There are periods of overlap and we are in one of those periods. 

Stocks and Commodities overlapped in the 1940s. 

Stocks began a new secular in 1942 and Commodities were finishing their secular bull, leading to the peak in 1951. Stocks exploded after 1949. 

Today is much like the 1960s when some forms of hard assets began a new secular bull, while the one in Stocks was approaching its end.

When the secular bull in stocks ends, and it will in the next few years, that capital will move to another asset class. 

Because Bonds are already in a secular bear (and crypto trades with stocks), that capital will move into Gold and hard assets.

Sponsor Companies

Equinox Gold (EQX), which has had struggles has completed its merger/acquisition with Calibre Mining.

The company has potential to grow production 60% in 2026 and is trading at a very low valuation (due to past missteps). 

Calibre are known as elite operators and intend to get the Greenstone Mine ramped up to nameplate capacity and ramp up the Valentine Mine to nameplate capacity in early 2026.

Chairman Ross Beatty has bought over $1.5 Million in stock in the market in recent months. 

GoGold Resources (GGD.to, GLGDF) is currently a small Silver producer with a pipeline of two development projects. Its CEO Brad Langille owns a large position in the company and has a very strong track record.

The company is attractively priced and in position to produce 9M oz Silver-equivalent/year in a few years, with another development project that could take it to 16-17M oz Silver-equivalent.

The stock doubled since we called it a buy on December 22, 2024. It is emerging from a complex bottoming pattern, which projects an upside target of C$2.60.

For more analysis of these companies and many more companies, subscribe to TheDailyGold Premium.

4) Implied Allocation to Gold is Very Low

Adjusting for the rising price of Gold, the nominal assets in Gold ETFs remain below 2020 and 2011 highs. 

In real terms, as seen in the image below, the implied allocation to Gold (via ETFs) is near a secular low.

5) Gold vs. S&P 500 Secular Move Began 3/2025

The chart below plots Gold against the S&P 500, dating back 170 Years! 

The previous secular peaks in the ratio were nearly 5 during the Great Depression and nearly 6 (in monthly terms) in 1980. 

The present ratio is 0.52. 

This level is not even a fraction of where it will peak next decade. 

Moreover, Gold's rise against the stock market has barely started. 

Gold had surged higher to new all-time highs by 1972-1973, but its ratio remained near its secular low. It had another 7 years to rise. 

(See the thin vertical line).

6) Gold Backing of Monetary Base

Gold at its current price multiplied by US Gold reserves, backs 15% of the monetary base. 

At 100% backing, the Gold price would be $21,000.

This is 100% backing today. 

Surely the monetary base will be higher 10 years from now. 

Summary

Gold, Silver and hard assets made secular peaks in 2011 and 1980. 

Each was 11 years after the secular peak in the stock market. 

The stock market has yet to make its secular peak. 

When it does (and because Bonds are already in a secular bear), there will be nowhere for capital to move but into hard assets. 

Various charts and data show Gold's secular move began in late 2023 or February 2024.

In TheDailyGold Premium....

TDG #945 was a smaller, 15-page update.

We highlighted recent developments and news to come (p2) and covered a stock that is breaking out and heating up. The company is one of the best values at this moment. But it's moving. 

Despite a bit of weakness in the sector, our portfolio closed last week at another high. 

Find good companies, buy at reasonable prices, trim big winners and cut losers. 

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Thank you for reading.

I wish you all the best in 2025 and beyond.