Good Morning!

Gold was extremely overbought in the spring & due for a rest. 

It has corrected bullishly but is far from its 200-day moving average. 

Today I share my thoughts and charts.

But first, the best way to mitigate the risk sector corrections is to buy the right companies and at reasonable prices.

To learn which juniors we like best and have 5x to 10x upside potential, subscribe to TheDailyGold Premium 👇👇👇  

1) Gold's Quarterly RSI

It's not the end of the quarter yet but the message from Gold's quarterly RSI stands. 

Gold is very overbought. 

Considering quarterly RSI, Gold is as overbought as it was in 1972, 1973 and 2006. 

(The other points were later in secular bull markets)

2) Comparison to Present?

In 1972, Gold corrected 12% for 4.5 months and came within 3% of the 200-day moving average. 

In 2006, Gold corrected 23% for 5 months. 

In 1973, Gold corrected 28% for 5.5 months. 

At present, Gold is clearly closest to 1972. It has corrected 11% and is 3.5 months in. 

There are two conclusions. 

First, after Gold's failed breakout from last Friday, the correction figures to last longer and could come very close to testing the 200-day moving average. 

Second, if Gold begins another leg higher that exceeds $4000, then in 2026 there is severe risk of +20% correction, ala 1973 and 2006.

3) Gold Daily Chart

Gold is $300 above its 200-day-moving average in the spot market and $280 above it in the futures market. 

The spot market could test $3275 again and if that breaks, there is downside potential to $3150-$3200. 

In the spot market, chart below, the 200-day moving average will surpass $3100 in September, around the time the correction turns 5 months old. 

Gold against the stock market closed at 0.52. It has a confluence of strong support at 0.50-0.51, which will be retested again. 

To confirm a trend change, we need to see the ratio close above 0.54.

Sponsor Companies

Equinox Gold (EQX) is a paid sponsor of this free newsletter. The company pays us a monthly fee to be featured here. 

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Calibre Mining's management, who are known as elite operators have taken control of operations and are working to ramp up the Greenstone Mine and later the Valentine Mine. 

If successful, Equinox could see a major turnaround.

Chairman Ross Beatty has bought over $1.5 Million in stock in the market in recent months. 

More Good News for Equinox

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4) Gold All-Time High Breakout Analog

This chart plots the 3 other Gold breakouts to new all-time highs on the scale of the current breakout, which began in late February 2024.

I did not notice this until recently but Gold is closely following the trend and slope of the 2009-2019 breakout move (red). 

That move nearly hits $4000 at the end of January 2026.

Gold is currently running ahead of that and if it were to continue then it could reach $4600 by that time.

The 2009-2010 line starts its big move in November, which, for Gold at present, would likely entail first a test of the 200-day moving average (or close).

In TheDailyGold Premium....

TDG #947 was a 20-page update.

The miners and juniors had a huge week and so we reiterated why we don't trade in and out. 

Three times this year we anticipated 5%-10% more downside in GDX and GDXJ, but the sector zoomed higher.

We wrote: 

As always the key is focusing on companies individually, buying value, trimming big winners and rotating some profits into stocks that are much better values. 

We answered a Q&A about one of those potential values. It's a company many are asking about. We answered why the stock has not moved yet and what has to happen for it to move.

We also covered various breadth indicators for the gold stocks.

The dichotomy is some of those indicators are giving warning signs, yet silver stocks just broke-out of a 12-year-long base. 

What are people saying about TheDailyGold Premium

right now?

Thank you for reading.

I wish you all the best in 2025 and beyond.