Good Morning!

Last week we covered our current expectations for Gold over the next 18-24 months.

Now it is time for Silver, which is about to hit its measured upside target of $41. 

What is realistic over the next year or two? 

Follow below....

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1) Silver Near Term to Medium Term

Spot Silver closed yesterday at $40.80. 

In June, Silver broke-out from a 9/10-month long consolidation, that projects to an upside target of $41. 

The monthly chart below and weekly chart show $42-$43 as the next significant resistance.

Both the quarterly and monthly charts show strong support at $35.

The quarterly all-time high is $37.60. That is the level to watch on September 30. 

2) Silver Historical Chart & Upside Potential

Silver is set to break-out from a massive 45-year-long base within the next few years, or sooner. 

There is a measured upside target of $96. 

Think about the breakouts in Coper & Oil and the mid 2000s. 

In 2005, Copper broke out from a 32-year-long base. After its breakout, it surged 170% in only 12 months. 

In 2004, Oil broke out from a 24-year-long base. Then it gained nearly 70% in 14 months and 95% in two years. 

Silver is trading within an even bigger and much longer base than those two.

3) Silver vs. 60/40 Portfolio

Here we plot Silver against a total return portfolio of 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds. 

The ratio has emerged from a major bottom in recent years. 

With a bit more upside, it can test the 2016 and 2020 highs. 

Breaking out from this 11-year-long base against the 60/40 Portfolio will give Silver the fuel to break $50. 

That breakout would signal capital moving out of conventional assets and into Silver.

4) Silver vs. 60/40 Portfolio & Stock Market

Here we plot Silver against the 60/40 Portfolio and also Silver against the Stock Market. 

Silver against the S&P 500 is 60% of Silver/60-40 PF. 

Silver against the Stock Market is very close to breaking out of a 4-year-long base. 

A breakout there and a sustained one, could help push Silver/60-40 PF to the 2016 & 2020 peaks and 11-year-long resistance.

5) Silver after Gold Breakouts to All-Time Highs

Here we plot Silver's performance after Gold's breakouts to new all-time highs in 1972, 1978 and 2009. 

We use the scale of Silver during the current Gold breakout move, which began late February 2024. 

We removed the 1979-1980 spike from the chart, but it's part of one of the averages. 

This move has been tracking 1972 somewhat closely, although its currently 20% behind. That move did not break $50 until February 2026, which is 5 months from now. 

In any case, I would guess Silver could break $50 sometime in 2026.

Summary

Silver has a measured upside target of $41, but could stop at the next significant resistance at $42-$43. 

Silver is inches from breaking out of a 4-year-long base against the Stock Market, while Silver/60-40 Portfolio has another 8% to go, to test an 11-year-long base. 

When Silver is able to break-out from that 11-year-long base against the 60/40 Portfolio, it will fuel Silver through $50 as it indicates capital is moving out of Stocks and Bonds and into Silver. 

The measured upside target, upon clearing $50, is $96 for Silver. Based on the major breakouts in Oil and Copper, Silver could hit that target in 12 to 18 months after it breaks $50. 

Should Silver break $50 sometime in 2026, then we'd be looking at nearly $100 Silver, potentially in late 2027 or early 2028.

In TheDailyGold Premium....

TDG #950 was a 21-page update.

This was a chart heavy update and we focused on breadth readings in the gold stocks.

Breadth readings are sounding warnings but GDX & XAU just broke-out of 12-year-long bases against the 60/40 Portfolio. 

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Thank you for reading.

I wish you all the best in 2025 and beyond.