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Here are some links worth your time...
Podcast: TheDailyGold Podcast #3
This week we have only one guest. David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report discusses the current situation in the precious metals complex and some big picture and historical thoughts on precious metals and Silver especially.
Intriguing Dynamics b/w Euro:USD, Bunds & Oil
The latest from Erik Swarts. Take note of the chart that shows how the US$ has performed before and after its first rate hike.
The Problematic Comparison w/ the 1970s
Steve Saville, one of my favorite commentators looks at the problem with comparing Gold's secular bull market today with that of the 1970s.
Chart of the Day: PM Bear Market
Chart & Thoughts from Tiho Brkan
Balmoral Resource Extends Grasset Discovery by 20%
Drill results expand Balmoral's Nickel-Copper-PGM discovery
Marc Faber Interview with Kitco
Premium Snippets
Below is a weekly candle chart of our Top 40 Index. It did not have as strong as a week as GDX, GDXJ, HUI, etc and that could be a signal of short covering in the main indices and larger stocks. The top 40 index closed at 306. Its 80-wma is at 333. Again, the index needs to make a weekly close above the 330-335 level to start to turn bullish. A down week this upcoming week would be bearish as it would render the recent weeks a bearish
flag.
Sticking with the stocks, here is the updated bear analog chart. If I apply the "final decline" of the 1996-2000 bear to the current bear, then the current bear would end at the very end of July.
Here is a look at Gold with its volatility index at the bottom of the chart. That has declined from 25 to 14. Very low volatility often leads to sudden, large moves. It appears that Gold could reach very low volatility within the next few weeks.
Also of note is the COT remains elevated for Gold and Silver. The net speculative positions are too high at this stage. It would be one thing if the COTs were high and Gold was trading above $1300 or even above $1250. Gold has barely been able to remain at $1220 and yet a decent amount of speculative longs remain. The net position is at 29% of open interest. Over the past two years important lows occurred at 6% twice and
10%.
Given the declining and low volatility, traders and investors should be on alert for a big move…not so much immediately but beyond the next few weeks. Think May or June. That move could be a breakdown below $1150 or it could be an advance above $1250 and that key resistance we discussed last week.
I wish I could share some new and great insight with you but that is the situation. We are seeing declining volatility in the miners and the metals. Bulls and bears are getting frustrated but perhaps it leads to a resolution as far as the end of the bear market. Will we see that final breakdown that would likely lead to a V type bottom (after a bad break) or will we see precious metals continue to hold support and slowly grind
higher?
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Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity in 2015!
-Jordan
Disclaimer: Sponsor Companies are paid sponsor companies of TheDailyGold.com website and this free newsletter. Do not construe sponsorship with a recommendation. The author of this newsletter is not a registered investment advisor. This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious
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