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Here are some links which I think you will find actionable...
More Downside Potential in Precious Metals Complex
Our most recent editorial, penned Thursday.
Video: Final Breakdown Begins?
Our thoughts on precious metals, recorded after Tuesday's trade.
Video: Greg Weldon Market Update
Great video update from Greg. He cycles through many economic & market charts and provides analysis and commentary.
Economic Fallout from China Selloff
A chart with a few data points and some thoughts from BCA Research.
Emerging Markets Breaking Down
Tiho Brkan with a chart and a few thoughts on emerging markets. (I would have linked directly to his site but the post is missing).
Premium Snippets
The first chart is from last Saturday's update.
We plot from top to bottom, the % of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-dma, the new 52-week lows on the NYSE, the cumulative advance decline line and then the NYSE.
We are seeing cracks in other markets and US equities have started to crack a bit. The NYSE itself is barely holding above its 400-dma. We can see the 400-dma has been an excellent indicator of trend over the past 10 years. Losing the 400-dma would be a sign of a bear market.
The indicators are looking bearish. The % of stocks above the 200-dma is diverging badly. If that falls below the 2014 low of 30% then it will mark a 3-year low. New 52-week lows are starting to pickup. Note from late 2011 to the summer 2014 there were barely any new 52-week lows. Now its picking up as it did in 2007. The A/D line is holding up but note the black arrows in 2008 and 2011. The A/D line gave no warning or confirmation
signal.
The market is looking shaky and as a result the Gold/stocks ratio has stopped falling and is trying to form a bottom. If Gold drops to $1050 it will be interesting to see if that ratio continues to hold its low or not. Its starting to look more favorable for Gold. Once US equities lose their 400-dma, I can't see precious metals having much more downside. Major equity market weakness (+10-15%) will be a very bullish development
for precious metals.
That being said, we are not yet very close to a widespread buying opportunity in the gold stocks. Below is a weekly plot of GDM, the forerunner to GDX. We also include two oscillators: GDM's distance from its 20-week ema and its 20-week rate of change.
The first problem is GDM has lost major support at the 2008-2014 lows around 500. GDM closed at 463. The next real strong support is at 400, which is 13% downside.
The other problem is the oscillators show that GDM is not yet very oversold. If it heads towards 400 it probably will get very oversold. Not close though yet.
So GDM could have 13% downside to 400. Look at the HUI's chart and it potentially has a lot more downside.
For this bear market to be as bad as the 1996-2000 bear, GDM needs to decline another 10%, Barron's Gold Mining Index by 10% and the HUI down to 100. That is nearly 30% downside.
We will keep targets in mind but continue to monitor price action, sentiment and oversold indicators to know when to get in and out of hedges and when we may get close to a buying opportunity in the stocks.
Yesterdays 33-page update TDG #421 included an update on a few comments on a quality junior producer that we hope to buy more of at a lower price. We also included an initial report on a company we teased about a month ago. Its a turnaround story with high risk but if Gold has a strong recovery in the next 12 to 18 months the stock has 5-bagger to 10-bagger potential.
While we are at it, last week we provided a few intro comments on a company with what appears to be a good deposit (at $1200 Gold) with size and located in a top jurisdiction. The issue is even though the economics are good, the sizeable capex and sustaining capex will probably require a much higher price.
But these are examples of the types of things we are looking for. Look for low downside risk, quality and major upside potential at $1500 Gold.
With that being said, will Gold crack its support this coming week? Judging from the action in the shares over the past two weeks (and past few days with metals rallying), the time is ripe. No one knows for sure, but prepare yourself in any case.
Consider a subscription to our premium service as you will immediately receive all recent updates as well as recent company reports (a 50 page file) and our book, "The Coming Renewal of Gold's Secular Bull
Market". You pay up front but you get everything up front, plus everything we send over the next six months.
This is an important point as it appears that the bear market could end with a really loud bang in the months ahead. We will be using various technical indicators and sentiment indicators to assess developments and position our portfolio appropriately. Find out the stocks we are watching and planning to buy in the months ahead.
Here is some unsolicited feedback from readers and subscribers:
I consider you the best analyst out there
I read your book while on vacation I must confess I thought it was fantastic I especially enjoy the sections where you use previous actions in the precious metals to gauge where you think it may go to in the future I think it may be the best book ever written on the subject and I don't say that lightly as I am a brutally honest
individual.
What's best about your service from my perspective and what you continue to deliver in EXCELLENT FORM is your recommendation of individual stocks within the junior sector along with your detailed and fairly comprehensive explanations for each of them. I think you do this as well as any of your peers
I just wanted to say thanks for all the great work you do..I consider you truly one of the best in your field.
In my experience (over 30 years in PM’s), your service is one of great value and high integrity.
Jordan, your honesty and humility is always appreciated. And rare in this sector.
Jordan, Just so you know, in my opinion you are the best newsletter writer in PM space.
I like that you combine TA with fundamentals and you even include…(deleted).
And I like that you don't have 50+ picks!
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listen to several views, (yours being most accurate)..
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Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.
-Jordan
Disclaimer: Sponsor Companies are paid sponsor companies of TheDailyGold.com website and this free newsletter. Do not construe sponsorship with a recommendation. The author of this newsletter is not a registered investment advisor. This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious
metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and due your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.
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