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Here are some links which I think you will find actionable...
Gold- Rebound or Breakdown?
This article was penned Thursday so it was before Friday's reversal in the gold miners. Nevertheless, still quite relevant.
Video: Gold Struggling to Rebound
Video analysis of Gold from Wednesday.
How Cheap will Gold Miners Become?
Post from Tiho at ShortSideofLong
The Wizard of Odds for US$
The latest from Erik Swarts at Market Anthropology.
Credit- Mack the Knife
This is a high-level blog and this post is excellent with numerous actionable charts.
Premium Snippets
Starting on the macro side...
Below is a chart of Bonds which we featured a week ago and data from the Merrill Lynch fund managers survey. Urban Carmel at the Fat-Pitch Blog writes: Fund managers are -60% underweight bonds, almost 1 standard deviation below the long term mean. Bonds continue to be the most underweighted asset
class.
The other thing to note about Bonds is they recently held their 400-day moving average which is sloping higher.
As we wrote about in our book and often mention, Gold is driven by negative real yields or falling real yields and little else. For Gold to get back into a bull market then either inflation has to rise faster than yields or yields need to decline faster than inflation.
The chart below highlights the three bad bear bear markets in Gold along with the real fed funds rate and the real 5-year yield. Note how real yields increased in every instance. Also consider how ridiculous the comparisons are with the early 1980s. In the first four years after Gold peaked real rates increased almost 14%! Over the past 4 years the fed funds rate has only increased about 4% while the real yield on the 5-year increased
by about 5%. That is not how a secular bull market ends.
The next chart will be in the updated version of my book. This shows the Barron's Gold Mining Index against the S&P 500. It is just about the cheapest ever. Gold stocks are the cheapest ever against Gold, S&P 500 and likely so against cash flow and other metrics.
As I see things, and this is only a guess (and it goes back to my video and article) precious metals could rebound and then decline to a final low or they could breakdown in the days ahead and crash to a final low. In that scenario we could see an end to the bear market sooner than most expect. Even non gold bugs have been thinking Gold would bounce. A failed bounce could lean to a final selloff which would produce an even greater
rebound. Say, something like a rebound from $1000 to $1150-$1180.
In TDG #425 (30 page update) we charted most of our favorite top-tier juniors and also provided comments on a handful of companies outside of the top tier. Those types could be very volatile in the weeks and months ahead. We also provided comments on a junior producer that looks incredibly cheap, operates in a good jurisdiction and has some big names on its board.
Whether the bottom comes soon or in a few months, now is the time to ready your list. That is what we are doing.
Consider a subscription to our premium service as you will immediately receive all recent updates as well as recent company reports (a +50 page file) and our book, "The Coming Renewal of Gold's Secular Bull
Market". You pay up front but you get everything up front, plus everything we send over the next six months.
This is an important point as it appears that the bear market could end with a really loud bang in the months ahead. We will be using various technical indicators and sentiment indicators to assess developments and position our portfolio appropriately. Find out the stocks we are watching and planning to buy in the months ahead.
Here is some unsolicited feedback from readers and subscribers:
I consider you the best analyst out there
I read your book while on vacation I must confess I thought it was fantastic I especially enjoy the sections where you use previous actions in the precious metals to gauge where you think it may go to in the future I think it may be the best book ever written on the subject and I don't say that lightly as I am a brutally honest
individual.
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In my experience (over 30 years in PM’s), your service is one of great value and high integrity.
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I like that you combine TA with fundamentals and you even include…(deleted).
And I like that you don't have 50+ picks!
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listen to several views, (yours being most accurate)..
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Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.
-Jordan
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