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Here are some links which I think you will find actionable...
Video: What's Next for Gold, Miners and US Equities?
Recorded after Monday. Still very relevant. We hold the same views today.
Emerging Markets Underperforming but not yet Oversold
Good, brief post from Tiho.
Rick Rule Interview w/ Palisade Radio
There is some actionable information in this interview. The link takes you to the interview and some questions that Rick answers. He believes a "rate hike failure" will trigger a big rally in Gold.
Fat Pitch Blog- Current Setup in Gold
Urban Carmel is a great analyst of markets & economic data. Definitely worth following.
Credit Spread Update
This is a good economic blog with good charts. Also worth following. We can see that the energy crash is spreading a tiny bit so far, to the high yield market.
Premium Snippets
We were on vacation last week so our weekly premium update (TDG #424) was shorter. Nevertheless, we have a few things to share.
First, recall the chart that we included last week which showed Gold and its net speculative position going back 15 years. Last week, Gold's spec position (as a percentage of open interest) was at its second lowest mark in 14 years. Well Friday's data showed that the position was down to 3.5% which is the lowest in 14 years. That is the kind of extreme bearish sentiment that was lacking in recent weeks and months. Silver's
net position was ~6%. That needs to go below 3% to reach its 14 year low.
A daily chart of the metals is shown below. Gold is on top, Silver is below. The metals became extremely oversold the previous week and are trying to form a low. If Gold closes above $1100/oz then it will be in position to rally back to the breakdown point at $1140/oz. Silver's resistance is around $15.50.
The miners are more oversold than the metals and therefore have a bit more room to "snap-back" to former resistance. That doesn't mean it will happen though. At worst, miners will fill the gaps. At best, they could reach the higher line. GDXJ is at the top with GDX below.
GDXJ continues to outperform GDX. In other words the GDXJ/GDX ratio is at an 8-month high. The reason could be because the large producers and majors have debt while most companies in GDXJ do not. One thing someone I respect told me is look for a major bankruptcy or two and that could mark the bottom. The point I want to make is be very careful with the majors and bloated companies with huge debt. They appear cheap for a reason and
thats because there is a risk they go bust.
I think the macro-market picture will be quite interesting in the months ahead. We discussed it in the conclusion to our premium update and hope to expand upon that in future updates. Keep your eyes on trends in currencies, bonds, equities and emerging markets as they figure to influence precious metals and possibly create a positive inflection point for precious metals in the months ahead.
Consider a subscription to our premium service as you will immediately receive all recent updates as well as recent company reports (a +50 page file) and our book, "The Coming Renewal of Gold's Secular Bull
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This is an important point as it appears that the bear market could end with a really loud bang in the months ahead. We will be using various technical indicators and sentiment indicators to assess developments and position our portfolio appropriately. Find out the stocks we are watching and planning to buy in the months ahead.
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-Jordan
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