Here are some links which I think you will find actionable...
 

Gold/Equities Ratios Starting to Breakout
Gold/Equities ratios have quietly made progress in favor of Gold. They still have work to do but the next push higher would take the ratios to 52-week highs. 

Update on Gold Miners- Part II
Tiho Brkan, ShortSideofLong blog shares a few charts and thoughts. Take a look at the other recent blog posts which also contain actionable information.    

The Mythical Silver Shortage
Great post from Steve Saville. He also includes a Silver/Gold ratio chart which shows us that the ratio is nearing major support (or resistance if Gold/Silver). 

Macro & Credit, the Overconfidence Effect
Another great post with numerous great charts, from the Macronomy Blog. They focus on credit markets. 

Interview with Jim Grant
Transcript of an interview with Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Comments on policy as well as market opportunities.



Fat-Pitch Fund Manager Survey Charts
Reposting this link for new readers. Great sentiment information in this post. Note where allocations to materials, commodities and EM's are!







Premium Snippets 

Starting off, I want to take a look at the NYSE, which gives us a clean downside target of 8500. The index closed at 9857. There is a confluence of strong support around 8500. Bulls obviously expect markets to make a double bottom and then explode higher. In the case of a new low, keep an eye on 8500 for the NYSE and $46-$47 for ACWI. 

Note that the market is much weaker than in 2011. Then it rallied back to its 400-dma before falling to a bear market low. Then, valuations in markets were far more compelling than today. Then the economy had room to gain strength. Today, bulls cite the "strong economy" but forget that markets are forward looking. Then, the gold/stocks ratio was about to turn higher in favor of stocks. Today it is about to turn higher in Gold's favor.

The market could very well bounce at the recent lows but ultimately I would not be bullish for an extended period of time until the NYSE tests 8500. 

 

The turn in Gold/Stocks is very positive for precious metals but it does not mean the bear market has ended. The next few things I'm looking for are for Gold to break below $1080 and for Gold/Stocks ratios to surpass January 2015 highs and make new 52-week highs. That would bring me a lot closer to get ready to buy my favorite junior miners.

Over the past few weeks Gold has made a new high while Silver and the miners have not. That tells us that this is a weak rally that likely won't last long. Gold could push higher to $1180 or even higher, and the miners could rally and test strong resistance but that could be a false alarm for bulls.

The other point to make is bearish sentiment has unwound. I'm looking at the CoT's, put-calls and other things. I've shared a few of them with you in recent weeks. The extreme bearish sentiment last seen in July has been unwound and there is room for precious metals to begin another, perhaps final leg down.

Turning to the miners, here are a few charts I'd like to share.

First, here is a look at the relative valuation (price to book) of the mining sector relative to the overall market. 



 



Second, here is the updated bear analog chart for miners. Both this analog and the HUI analog (if you compare 96-00 to 11-15) show that the bear market has gone far enough in terms of price but could last a few more months. 







It appears that gold stocks won't have a catalyst until Gold tests $1000/oz and makes a promising rebound. Since the miners are so bombed out its possible they could bottom ahead of Gold. I'll be curious to see the action should Gold break below $1080/oz. I want to see Gold nearing major support, sentiment (CoT, put-calls, etc) nearing extremes and my favorite miners making fishing line type of declines. That is the time to buy.

Gold is currently trading between $1140 and $1160. A weekly close below $1140 could end the rally while a close above $1160 implies a test of $1180.

In TDG #432 sent late Saturday, we provided more coverage on the stock market including some analysis on the sector we are currently short. We also included an updated report on one of our favorite junior gold producers. The report provides potential price targets for the stock at $1040 Gold, $1300 Gold and $1500 Gold.

If Gold has another leg lower and a date with $1000/oz, then we should be able to buy the best juniors at very compelling prices.

Sponsor alert: One exploration company that could be an excellent buy in the weeks and months ahead is Balmoral Resources. View the company's presentation at the PM Summit where they speak about both of their discoveries. 

Stay tuned as the weeks ahead should be more interesting and perhaps volatile! 


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