Here are some links which I think you will find actionable...
 

Many Unhappy Returns
This article from the Economist considers Deutsche Bank's valuation indicator that says stocks, bonds and real estate, all together are the most overvalued EVER! In the years ahead returns for conventional investments are likely to be low at best. It's one of many reasons why Gold and hard assets should flourish in the next 5 years. There are plenty of stock permabulls running around emotionally trying to debunk this. 

Gold's True Fundamentals are Mixed at Best
Good piece from Steve Saville. I urge you to follow more analysis like this and not the typical permabull Gold bug stuff that is not actionable. Gold will perform better when the market sense real yields will decline.   

Fat-Pitch Weekly Market Summary
Great post which covers US equities and US economic data.  

Why Top-Down Macro Remains More Important than Ever
Another great post from the Macronomy blog. 

Stock Market Sentiment Update
Good sentiment post from Tiho at ShortSideofLong.


Gold Short Term Bottom?
From Dan Norcini. 






Premium Snippets 

Here is a new indicator I decided to track. It's the premium/discount to the net asset value (NAV) of GDX. I was not certain how well it works, but it appears to help spot market extremes. (I also looked at GDXJ but it does not produce good signals). 

In the chart below you can see GDX and then its premium/discount to NAV. The two sets of downside spikes occurred in late 2008 and late 2014. At the 2008 low the discount reached nearly 2%. Weeks later, GDX retested the low and formed a higher low. At that higher low, the discount reached nearly 3%. In late 2014 the discount reached 1.5% and then 2.2%.

This is an indicator we can add to our watch list and something we can use in concert with other indicators. 
 

Another indicator we track is the put-call ratio for GLD. (We also track the put-call for SLV and GDX). It appears to work best with GLD and Gold. The 20-day MA of the put-call ratio for GLD has helped identify lows in Gold. As it nears 1.1 it tends to coincide with lows in Gold.

That helped identify the recent low but now the put-call is at 0.57 which is near the lowest in a year. There is not exactly pessimism in the market, according to this indicator. 

We took a small profit in our JDST position on Friday. The reversal in the miners on Friday bodes well for the next few days or bodes badly for having a leveraged short position.

With the Fed decision coming on Thursday, I would not be surprised to see additional short covering or some strength in precious metals. Strength over the next few days (into the meeting) could set the market up for a renewed decline post Fed. The futures market projects only a 23% chance of a hike, so a "no hike" could be anticipated over the next few days. If the market goes the other way, then you could get a relief rally post-Fed. 

In TDG #430 (29 pages) sent Saturday we stressed the importance of remaining patient. The prognosis is clear to us as our research leads us to believe precious metals will make new lows before the bear market will end. We are staying disciplined by keeping the majority of the portfolio in cash and booking profits on our hedged positions when possible.  

Whether you are accumulating Gold and Silver or want to speculate on promising juniors, our service can help you. We provide objective and actionable research on Gold, Silver and the companies. And we provide fundamental analysis reports of the companies. We also keep our eye on other markets. We are one of the only newsletters in the space that trades a real portfolio. That means our goals are aligned with yours. And we are one of the only editors who is a professionally credentialed analyst.

Unlike many of our competitors we don't make ridiculous promises, we don't employ copy writers to give you the hard sell, we don't try to sell you additional products nor do we charge obscene prices. Also, we admit our mistakes and learn from them because thats how we grow and provide greater value in the future. Learning from mistakes we made in 2014 has helped us to be up 3.4% over the past 7 months while GDXJ is down 29% and GDX 38% in the same period. That is with the portfolio in at least 60% cash and carrying some junior positions the entire time.


I have subscribed to many investment services over my lifetime. I can honestly say Jordan Roy-Byrne has developed not only one of the most analytically accurate, but also has hit the high water mark by making his analysis feel personalized. In addition to a detailed weekly report, he often sends additional emails with daily observations of not only the physical metals and miners, but also related metrics such as the market and currencies. His service is a great integration of history and future probability that has not only helped me make money, but also avoid losing. In fact, the only time I do lose is when I take more aggressive positions than he has recommended, or follow my gut instead of his objective reasoning. It truly is a 5 Star Service at a great price.

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