These links cover precious metals, bonds, the credit markets and the stock market. I think they are worth your while. 
 

Precious Metals Video Update
In this video we focus on short-term targets for Gold, Silver & the miners. 

Quick Precious Metals Update. 
Post from Tiho Brkan at ShortSideofLong.  

Bond Markets Message
Another great post from Tiho with a few good charts. 

Macro & Credit: Sympathetic Detonation
Lengthy post from the Macronomy blog. Excellent charts. Gold miners are part of their deflation basket.   

Bear Rally or New Bull Surge?
Excellent, unbiased analysis from Chris Ciovacco. Well worth your time if you care about the stock market indices. 







Premium Snippets 



The stock market has rebounded strongly over the past few weeks. The S&P 500 appears very close to hitting resistance. Let me share a chart of the Russell 2000, the small cap index.

The first point I'd like to make is the bearish look to the Russell/S&P 500 ratio at the bottom of the chart. The ratio is trending down and recently failed at a declining 400-day moving average. The odds favor small caps continuing to underperform in the weeks and months to come.

Turning to the price action, the Russell has rebounded from 1080 to 1170. There is resistance in the 1160 to 1180 range. The 400-day moving average is at 1183 and capped the previous rally. The Russell could trade in a range from 1100 to 1200 for the next several months. I don't think it's about to fall apart here but I do think risk favors the bears over the next week or two. 

 

Next is Silver and the weekly candle chart with our added data of the net speculative position in Silver. 

Silver has broken higher after forming a bit of a base. The small breakout projects to $17. Note that there is a major confluence of resistance nearing $17. Silver hasn't been above its 80-week moving average since late 2012. It's at $17.29 and the two trendlines are converging near $17. Think there might be a pullback at $17?

Also, note the net spec position. It's already back up to 32%! 



 




A few weeks ago we thought and hoped the miners would break lower to initiate a "V" bottom. Anytime I get too bearish on the miners I need to keep the following chart handy. Certainly the miners are prone to huge swings but the miners were still very oversold in recent weeks (though they didn't rally much at first). 

Did miners put in a bottom recently? Could they bottom before Gold as they did in late 2000? (Gold bottomed 4-5 months later.) These are some of the things I've opined on TDG #433 and yesterday's TDG #434.

One key point about this is the duration of this bear. It's now nearly as long as the epic 1996-2000 bear. The cycle could turn for the miners, turn slowly or start to turn before Gold bottoms just because it's been such a long and deep down cycle. This is something I will ask folks in my future interviews. "Can the miners' cycle turn up (given the current context) before Gold?"  








In last week's email we discussed a few reasons why we remain cautious on the metals over the medium term. We've also discussed and noted potential short-term upside targets. This rally could certainly carry a bit farther.

What will be interesting to me is to see how the miners perform. Will they continue to outperform the metals? Will they reach their 200-day moving averages? How about their 400-day moving averages? The miners could be starting a major turn if they could rally up to the 400-day moving average and strongly outperform Gold at the same time. Yet if Gold makes a weekly reversal before hitting $1200 and the miners' strength fizzles then we'd be on alert for another leg down.  



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