Good Sunday and November to you. Here are the links of the week.... 
 

Bearish Reversal in Precious Metals at Resistance…..Again
Precious Metals form a nasty reversal at the 200-dma's. We include a new and updated gold bear analog chart.
 

Rick Rule: I am too Wise to Call a Bottom in Mining
Good interview with Rick Rule, from last week.
 

Silver's Bearish Signal
Tiho Brkan's latest thoughts on Silver.
 

Connecting the Dots
The latest post from Erik Swarts. He gives his latest views on Bonds, Currencies and more.


GDP from 30,000 feet
Great charts and info from the blog of economist Scott Grannis.    


Possibility of Rate Hike Should Not Be Ignored
So argues SoberLook. Includes economic data.    





Premium Snippets 



Just when there is a chance for precious metals to extend their rally, the Fed does an about face. We admit it. We where whipsawed.

In running through all of our charts and sentiment indicators, we cannot help but observe that precious metals are now in a precarious position. They put in a major reversal at resistance and that was followed by more selling.

Last week we noted that the US$ could have a potential upside target of 120. It would be triggered upon a breakout past 100. That obviously would bode negatively for the precious metals sector.

The monthly chart of Gold is below. (We examine the monthly charts at the end of every month). Two things should be noted. First, Gold rallied up to MAJOR resistance at $1180 but closed the month at $1142, failing to hold most of its gains and selling off at that $1180 resistance. Second, Gold has formed a bearish flag. There is potential for a sharp move down in November or December. If Gold breaks below $1100 then the bear flag breakdown has started.   
 

In our editorial we showed a new gold bear analog chart that included the 3 longest bear markets. 

This chart below puts the 1970-1987 price action for Gold on the same scale as 2001 to 2017. Three other bears lasted a full 5 years including the 1980-1985 bear. Also, Gold's 8-year cycle low is due in 2016.

Note the two big differences between now and then. Gold never went parabolic (this time) and it also did not go below all the retracement points (as it did during the 1980-1981 collapse). Gold's lowest retracement point (62%) is ~$890. Also, if Gold bottomed at, say $950, then it would be a 50% decline compared to 65% back then.



 



Our next chart shows the yield over treasuries for high yield, energy high yield and metals and mining high yield. Note where the peaks for metals and mining were in late 2001 and late 2008….higher than at present. 

If Gold breaks below $1080 then we could see a spike in this chart and a bullish signal for contrarians. It's not close yet though. 







In TDG #437, a 34 page update sent Saturday we also noted that Gold is vulnerable in real terms. We charted Gold against a number of currencies (in addition to the FC index) and Gold against global equities. One thing to note is Gold/ACWI failed at resistance four times in the past two months. 

Multiple times in the past few years we've thought Gold was about to drop to $1000. It has not happened yet but this may be the move that starts it. The monthly chart shows how Gold has formed a clear bear flag and how the breakdown move could drop to $1030-$1040.

Another thing to note is Gold's 12-week rate of change has hit -10% to -12% six times over the past two years. If we take a 12% drop from Gold's peak two weeks ago, then in early January we'd have a target of ~$1035.

This is a time to be very defensive and very careful. It could get a lot worse for Gold and gold stocks before it gets a lot better. 

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