Here are the links of the week.... 
 

The Effect of a Fed Rate Hike on Precious Metals
We look at history in terms of Fed hikes, the US$, Gold and gold stocks. Our view is if the Fed hikes as planned then history argues for a rebound in hard assets and a decline or consolidation in the US$ index.  
 

Precious Metals Video Update
Recorded Tuesday night. A look at Gold, its near term upside, its COT and the US$ index and Fed funds rate together. 
 

Global Macro, Breadth & Energy Sector
Tiho Brkan's latest blog post.   
 

The ridiculous and relentless fuss over Comex Gold inventory
Great blog post from Steve Saville. 


Weekly Market Summary
From Urban Carmel's Fat-Pitch Blog. Must read every week.


Owning Stocks Today is Risking Dollars to Make Pennies
Excellent post from Jesse Felder that includes many charts.


Note: If you come across anything worthy of being included, feel free to send it my way!





Premium Snippets 



Chart 1 shows the median (10-day MA) put-call ratio for GDX. 

As you can see, spikes in the data have coincided with most of the important lows seen in GDX over the past 4 years. This chart is two weeks old but still very relevant. The put-call ratio exploded even as GDX was holding its support. Since then GDX has continued to hold support.  
 

Chart 2 is from sentimentrader.com and shows Gold's optimism (optix) index.  

Gold's Optix touched 10% this week. That is the lowest reading in 2+ years and the second lowest reading since late 1997. The lowest reading was the 9% in early July 2013. 


 



Things appear to be lining up for a rebound in miners. Technically the miners held their lows even as Gold made new lows. The miners continue to hold their lows. Last week we showed you the GDX NAV chart which makes a good case for a rally. The same can be said of the GDX put-call ratio chart. As for Gold, its net speculative position remains close to 0 and its Optix is at its second lowest level in nearly 18 years!

Last but not least, history argues we should see a bounce. We made that point in our weekly editorial. Of course that assumes the Fed hikes a quarter point. 

While we expect a bounce into Q1 2016, we are keeping in mind the potential for a big US$ breakout in 2016 and lower lows in the metals. We've bought some positions and plan to buy a few more to participate in the rally. We aren't getting too bullish because we think the time for that will be sometime in Q2 2016.

In TDG #433 we included two updated company reports. One company is a junior producer with a good balance sheet and deep portfolio of projects. We could see it falling another 20% but it has a few catalysts and huge potential if Gold returns to a bull market. The other company has made some savvy moves and has become one of our favorites. Management has a track record and it has strong projects. 

Also we noted how a few macro developments over the past few years are actually helping certain companies and improving the economics of projects even with lower Gold prices. (Sorry to be vague!) One of them is much lower energy costs. 

Whether you are accumulating Gold and Silver or want to speculate on promising juniors, our service can help you. We provide objective and actionable research on Gold, Silver and the companies. And we provide fundamental analysis reports of the companies. We also keep our eye on other markets. We are one of the only newsletters in the space that trades a real portfolio. That means our goals are aligned with yours. And we are one of the only editors who is a professionally credentialed analyst.

Unlike many of our competitors we don't make ridiculous promises, we don't employ copy writers to give you the hard sell, we don't try to sell you additional products nor do we charge obscene prices. Also, we admit our mistakes and learn from them because thats how we grow and provide greater value in the future.


I have subscribed to many investment services over my lifetime. I can honestly say Jordan Roy-Byrne has developed not only one of the most analytically accurate, but also has hit the high water mark by making his analysis feel personalized. In addition to a detailed weekly report, he often sends additional emails with daily observations of not only the physical metals and miners, but also related metrics such as the market and currencies. His service is a great integration of history and future probability that has not only helped me make money, but also avoid losing. In fact, the only time I do lose is when I take more aggressive positions than he has recommended, or follow my gut instead of his objective reasoning. It truly is a 5 Star Service at a great price.

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Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity. 

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