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Happy Fathers day to the fathers out there!
Here are the links of the week....
Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears
The gold stocks are following some historical examples. What do they imply for the gold stocks going forward?
Interview with Mike Swanson
I explain why my near term bias is neutral to bearish but why I expect higher prices after that. Also, be sure to read this post from Mike about why you should just buy and hold during the bull market.
Fund Managers Current Asset Allocation
Actionable sentiment data and charts from the Fat Pitch Blog.
Four Charts that Invalidate Gold Price Suppression Story
Blog post from Steve Saville who is one of my favorites.
The Simple Reason George Soros is so Bearish
Post from the Felder Report.
Renormalization is Dead: Market Pricing in 1 Hike in Next 3 years
Link to ZeroHedge piece.
Premium Snippets
Chart 1: Junior Gold Index Bull Analog
The index contains 18 stocks and has a median market cap of roughly US $300 Million. The index has gained nearly 200% since the start of the bull. It has been buoyed by a few takeovers.
Although the index has made tremendous gains already, it could potentially double in the next 6-9 months. Take the peak of where the red and blue lines are in Q1 2017 and it is nearly a double from current levels.
In our editorial we noted future resistance targets of Gold $1500-$1550 and HUI 365 (also GDX 40). That is roughly 60% upside for the HUI and GDX.
Those potential gains may seem extreme but keep in mind these two things. First, they would come with Gold moving from $1300/oz to $1500-$1550/oz. That is a significant move and the gains would come over a six to nine month period, potentially. Second, the potential early 2017 peak would be in-line with the historical analogs we look at.
In TDG #470, a 31 page update we provided extended comments on a handful of stocks we own along with our usual analysis and charts. We are 91% invested and looking to deploy a bit more cash if miners correct and consolidate as the analogs suggest.
Our methods are not perfect and we certainly make mistakes (which we admit because that is how we learn and grow), but over time we have strongly outperformed the benchmarks and competition since we started our model portfolio nearly 7 years ago. Through Friday the model portfolio reached another new all time high.
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Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.
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