|
Chart 1: US Dollar Index Bull Markets
The analog chart below plots the three bull markets in the US$ index, using the scale of the current bull.
There are only two other bulls to compare and contrast. The path of this bull has been similar to the 1992-2001 bull. Both started out fast then went dormant for a few years before trending higher for several years. The Plaza Accords ended the 1978-1985 bull which was going parabolic. I expect the current bull in the US$ will hit 120 before it ends.
Chart 1: Longest Bear Markets in Silver
The analog chart below shows Silver's longest bear markets. In terms of price, these bears ended much earlier. We plotted the data until a new bull market began.
Following the 1986 and 1993 lows, Silver rebounded roughly 100% and 80%. The gain from the 2003 bottom became extremely large after several years. Initially it was about 85%. First, as a technical analyst I would love to see Silver make a strong double bottom. (I think it has a higher probability of doing so relative to Gold). Second, history implies a potential 80% rebound in the first year to two years. It is not a forecast but that would put Silver at $25-$28/oz by middle to late
2018.
We bought a position in JNUG (3x long GDXJ) on Wednesday because we were very confident a rally was coming. We have sold a few things because they became losses (sell at a 20% loss) and took profits on another. We are looking to take profits on a few positions vulnerable to lower Gold prices and take profits on one or two of our strong positions.
Yesterday's 37-page update included an updated report on a company that has been a turnaround success over the past year to 18 months. The stock has performed very well but has corrected some. We are looking to take profits on strength as we could see the stock dropping ~30% from here given our Gold outlook. In this report we gave our 12-18 month upside targets along with a 6-month downside target in the event of $1050 Gold.
As we said last week, low risk buys will come to us when Gold is trading below $1100/oz. Use the coming strength to de-risk your portfolio and cash up for the bargains that could be coming early in 2017.
I remain extremely confident in Gold's bullish outlook in the quarters and years ahead. Negative real rates are unavoidable in the years ahead due to extreme amounts of record debt piled on government and corporate balance sheets at 0% interest rates. Sadly many bulls will give up at precisely the wrong time. In fact, that is almost a precursor required for the start of the historic bull we've all been waiting for. There will be more pain in the weeks and months ahead but
once Gold breaks below $1100/oz, we all need to get ready for the bullish reversal.
Consider subscribing to our premium service for less than $1/day.
Our service is tailored for precious metals investors who seek market timing and fundamental analysis of junior companies poised to outperform.
We seek to own the companies with the best fundamentals that have the best risk/reward potential. We want to own the leaders while avoiding laggards with limited potential. We also want to cut our losses. A 20% stop loss on a 5% position limits the loss to 1% of the portfolio.
We are the only credentialed technical analyst (CMT, MFTA) with a gold-stock focused service that utilizes a real model portfolio. We tell you what we are buying and selling. Hence, we are completely transparent.
And when you see the volume of our work and significant weekly updates you will realize that no one works harder than we do.
Our subscription cost amounts to less than $1/day!
There is so much fluff out there in this sector and much of it is way more expensive than what we provide.
Consider a subscription today as you will receive all of our recent company reports and updates within hours of your signup, as well as everything we produce for the next 6 months. You pay up front but get significant value up front (in a welcome email). Our goal is to help subscribers make money and
be the best service in its category.
Click Here to Learn More
Jordan focuses nearly exclusively on the gold sector and in my opinion does a good job either being right, or getting right when adjustment is needed. He moves forward without hype, bias or ego.
Thanks for all your great work - charts and analysis is the best there is.
Your service is truly a gem among this industry. I've subscribed to several services over the past year and a half, and I wish I had landed on your site first.
I'm a new member - just want to say how much I appreciate your expert advice but mostly, your direct, honest and zero bullshit approach.
Click Here to Learn More
Weekly updates are sent on Saturdays while flash updates are sent when we make a trade. Reports are sent sporadically. Upon signup you receive all recent reports and updates. Unlike most other editors, we answer subscriber questions.
Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.
-Jordan
Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered
personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.
|
