TheDailyGold: Gold's Fundamentals Strengthen...

Published: Sun, 02/19/17

 
The Daily Gold
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA
 
 

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

Sunday, February 19, 2017

 
 
Here are the actionable links from last week...
 

Gold's Fundamentals Strengthen

Real Interest Rates have gone deeper into negative territory. We also note that the action in miners (juniors, seniors) relative to Gold is a strong signal of a healthy bull market. 

Video: Why Capital Structure Is Important

Linked directly to video. When you are researching juniors, remember that capital structure (share structure + cash/debt) is very important!

February Fund Managers Asset Allocation Survey

This survey always includes great charts and a ton of actionable information. 

Market Anthropology: Connecting the Dots

Great post from Erik Swartz. Numerous charts and coverage of the CPI report, real yields, Gold, Silver, Bonds, US$ and Stocks. 

Our Views on the US Dollar

From 13D Research. I've never heard of them but this is a good read. 



 

Premium Snippets...

 

Picture 1: Junior Gold Stocks Index 

This is the daily bar chart of our junior gold index. It includes the 50-day moving average and 350-day exponential moving average (which often provides support during corrections in a bull market). 

Until Friday this looked like a bullish consolidation. It can be if the index holds above 760. If it breaks below 760 then it could test 715-720, which is 10% downside. There is also a confluence of support at 680. That would be a 14% decline.   






Late Saturday we emailed subscribers TDG #505, a 33-page update that included an updated report on an exploration company that has been in the news lately. It is currently one of our favorite companies.

In the report we estimated various price targets based on a future Gold price as well as a future resource estimate for the company. We included a few estimates based on how successful the company's exploration is in terms of the potential grade of its resource in the future. These are the types of calculations we employ in order to measure the potential upside. 

As you can see from the chart above, the junior miners could have 10% to as much as 14% downside potential. If Friday's decline holds then I lean bearish for the next few weeks. Such a correction could provide good entry points on various companies, including the one covered in TDG #505. 


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We seek to own the companies with the best fundamentals that have the best risk/reward potential. We want to own the leaders while avoiding laggards with limited potential. We also want to cut our losses. A 20% stop loss on a 5% position limits the loss to 1% of the portfolio.

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Weekly updates are sent on Saturdays while flash updates are sent when we make a trade. Reports are sent sporadically. Upon signup you receive all recent reports and updates. Unlike most other editors, we answer subscriber questions.

Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.

-Jordan

Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.