TheDailyGold: Gold Breakout & False Signals from GDXJ?...

Published: Tue, 04/18/17

 
The Daily Gold
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA
 
 

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

 
 
Here are the actionable links from last week...
 

Video: Gold Breakout & False Signals from GDXJ?

Published Thursday. Gold broke past the 200dma and $1278. We discuss the next targets and its relative performance. Meanwhile, GDXJ is having some issues that may be creating selling unrelated to market fundamentals. 

Interview with Mike Swanson, WallStreetWindow

Recorded Wednesday. Linked directly to mp3 file. Note, the interview was recorded before the very strong end of the day surge. 

Gold is on the Verge of Greatness

From Jesse Felder. He turned bullish in late 2015 and is not a gold bug. 

Greg Weldon Video on Gold

Brief video sharing some of his thoughts on Gold. 

 

Weekly Market Summary

From The Fat Pitch Blog. Great coverage of the equity market as usual.

Macro & Credit Update

From the Macronomy blog. Only one comment on Gold but their material (charts & analysis) is very relevant to precious metals.  

 

Premium Snippets...



Picture 1: HUI Bull Analog Chart


At the December low the HUI was below the other two bull markets. The same was true at the March low and even now.

Simply put, relative to history this new bull was overbought in the summer of 2016 but it became oversold by the end of November. Based on history the HUI remains in oversold territory. Both bulls reached near 400, 10 months from now. That implies a 90% gain in 10 months and there is much more if the HUI follows the 2000-2008 run.   







Picture 2: Junior Gold Bull Analogs

The main junior index we have is in black while our new smaller index is in lavender. 

This chart illustrates the same point in picture 1 but it is more clear. In summer, the juniors were very overbought relative to history. In recent months they have been very oversold relative to history. That may not last for long. 







Saturday evening we emailed subscribers a 33 page update in which we covered sector trends as well as 4 companies in detail. We shared our short and medium term expectations as well as the companies we think are the lowest risk buys at present. Although we were bearish in recent weeks we did not sell any positions and last week we mentioned a few companies that could be bought. One of those stocks surged this past week.

There are a handful of stocks that look like good buys and we are planning on putting a bit of our cash to work soon and more to work later. When you study the historical analogs above and combine that with the reduced risk of a test of the December 2016 lows, you should conclude that we are still in a window of opportunity as far as buyers. That window opened up last December and it may close later this year if the breakout move begins in Q3, rather than Q4 or Q1 2018. 

Consider a subscription today as we can help you get positioned in the junior companies with significant upside potential at reasonable entry points. 


Dr. Jeffrey Kern, who we recently interviewed, had this to say regarding our stock-picking abilities:

I am simply a pure market-timer for a broad basket of gold stocks and precious metals. Jordan, on the other hand, has provided superior STOCK-PICKING abilities over the longer-term. I am familiar with most gold stock subscription services over the past 30 years. I rarely provide endorsements of any kind, but Jordan's ability to analyze individual gold/silver stocks has been among the top 5 services over the past decade. First and foremost, I respect his integrity.

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I have been a subscriber for nearly 2 years now, and just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate the work you do. I always look forward to your weekly reports and find the analysis you present to be outstanding.

In my experience (over 30 years in PM’s), your service is one of great value and high integrity.

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We seek to own the companies with the best fundamentals that have the best risk/reward potential. We want to own the leaders while avoiding laggards with limited potential. 

We tell you what we are buying and selling. Hence, we are completely transparent.

Consider a subscription today as you will receive all of our recent company reports and updates within several hours of your signup, as well as everything we produce for the next 6 months. You pay up front but get significant value up front (in a welcome email). Our goal is to help subscribers make money and be the best service in its category.
 

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Weekly updates are sent on Saturdays while flash updates are sent when we make a trade. Reports are sent sporadically. Upon signup you receive all recent reports and updates. Unlike most other editors, we answer subscriber questions.

Thanks for reading. I wish you all great health and prosperity.

-Jordan

Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.