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Chart 1: Gold CoT vs. Silver CoT
We plot Silver, Gold and then Gold's net spec position divided by Silver's net spec position.
That ratio made a super-spike as the net spec position in Silver touched an all-time low below 2%. Note that the other spikes in this ratio coincided with interim lows in Silver. The one that did not? It was in 2001, 4 months before a major bottom in Silver.
Sunday morning we published TDG #563, a 24-page update in which we discussed the markets and factors that could influence Gold and how they may influence Gold in the weeks and months ahead. Just because Gold has not broken out, doesn't mean we want to be bearish.
Various juniors that we own have already turned the corner positively. A Gold test of $1300 or even $1265 would not change that. It would just cause a decline but a higher low in many cases. Meanwhile, the HUI is only 10% from our strong target support. And keep in mind that the gold stocks and Silver are already very oversold relative to Gold. They would get hit by a decline in Gold but could hold up quite well in real terms.
We've been looking for the start of the next bull move to begin sometime in Q3. Some weakness beforehand is perfectly fine and it could put Gold sentiment indicators (CoT, DSI, put-call) in a very constructive position that it has not come close to in recent weeks.
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