Here are the Links of the Week...

Can Gold Rise Without a Rate Cut?

There is one scenario, but it would take a bit of time to develop. 

Interview: Technical Review of Precious Metals

Conducted last Wednesday but still relevant. 

Weekly Market Summary

From the great Fat Pitch Blog. Solid review and outlook of the stock market.

Pace of Money Supply Growth is Declining

From the great Steve Saville. What are the implications of this and when?

Chart 1: GDXJ Breadth Indicators

We plot GDXJ along with the percentage of GDXJ stocks (the top 33 holdings) which closed above the 20-dma and 50-dma. 

The percentage for both moving averages hit 0% after Monday. Its the 9th time its happened over the past 4 years. The comparable to today is the peak in summer 2016 because today 50% of the basket closed above its 200-dma. So GDXJ is extremely oversold on a short-term basis but not oversold on a long-term basis (yet). 
 

 

TheDailyGold Premium #618

We published TDG #618, a 22-page update on Saturday night.

We were short the sector via JDST but we sold that a day too early. Sometimes very oversold becomes extremely oversold. That is what happened. 

The rounding tops on GDX and GDXJ as well as the unwinding of the rate cut trade leads me to think the miners could end up retesting the lows of late last year. Should we get a sharp snapback rally, I'd entertain re-buying my hedge. 

As we wrote in our editorial, if inflation picks up it will be positive for Gold after the market has "priced out" the rate cut. So we don't want to be full on bearish for long. A massive double bottom in GDX and GDXJ in summer and fall would be a very bullish technical development. 
 
Consider a subscription as we can keep you abreast of sector developments and get you invested in the companies with 3x, 5x and 10x potential. 
 

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized and individualized investment advice. Investment in the precious metals sector contains significant risks. You should consult with an investment advisor and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. This email may contain certain forward looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and a multitude of factors that can cause results and outcomes to differ materially from those discussed herein.